‘Global unrest has become an unbounded reality’.
To meet this emerging threat, critical thinking is imperative to mitigate the intelligence community’s vulnerability to strategic surprise. Formal or informal threat assessment techniques frame judgements about risk in conjunction with vulnerabilities. The ‘lenses’ analysts employ play decisive roles in developing actionable intelligence, making them the key to identification and prevention of strategic surprises.
According to the author, assessing the risk posed by adversarial groups has always been a challenge for intelligence analysts. By integrating the principles of a risk-based approach to adversarial systems’ threat assessment, the intelligence organization can integrate algorithm and models to provide a more accurate situational awareness to orient commanders and strategic decision-makers.
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About the author: Dr Troy E. Mitchell has served in the United States Marine Corps since 1999 and has a Doctorate in Strategic Security. He currently serves as an exchange officer to the ADF as SO1 Effects to the Amphibious Task Group ARG.